Even though four of the six sources were positive they were offset by a big decline in residential building permits. Dr. Gin, a USD economist, wrote that while the decline was worrisome it was too soon to determine if this dip was the start of a trend or, merely, a one month blip. Usually economists want to see three months data to declare there is a new trend.—either positive or negative.

He wrote that “it remains to be seen whether that stall is just a temporary bump in an upward trend or the start of the dreaded “double dip” recession.” Although residential units authorized by building permits fell significantly (a negative 1.52%), the bigger picture shows the building permits as measured at the end of the 3rd quarter this year is 17% higher than the same period last year.

In fact, single-family permits were up almost 32%. So, even though September’s permits were down significantly, the bigger picture shows the industry was much worse a year ago. A major drag on the Economic Index is San Diego’s lackluster labor market indicators—job losses remain high and unemployment remains unchanged at 10.16%.

Despite confidence rising for the last five months, it remains down more than seven percent compared to a year ago and down 40% from its high. On November 5, The Conference Board released its preliminary October Consumer Confidence Index showing a slight improvement nationally.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “Consumer confidence, while slightly improved from September levels, is still hovering at historically low levels.”

While we can take comfort that many of the indicators are improving, the overall state of San Diego’s economy remains weak and clearly needs a shot in the arm.