As population grows, what kind of quality of life can we expect?
Growth in Developing Nations and
Aging in Developed Nations Portend Many Changes
In a span of roughly 50 years, the human population increased by 4 billion people—the result of high birth rates in developing countries and the momentum of the baby-boom period in America and Europe.
Later this year, a global milestone will be reached as the world’s population will total 7 billion people, according to the 2010 Population Reference Bureau report.
When eyeing current and future population growth, two global trends have emerged: the vast majority of global population growth stems from developing countries, and the combination of lower birthrates and longer life spans in developed nations equates to a decline in the ratio of work-age adults to elderly.
Unprecedented Growth—a Billion Here, a Billion There
Former Senator Everett Dirksen reportedly said when talking about the U.S. budget, “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money.” As the human race is adding a billion to the population more and more often, the total population of the earth is eye-popping—projected to reach 7 billion this year.
After 250,000 years, in 1800, the world’s human population increased to 1 billion.
100 years later, in 1927, the human population increased to 2 billion.
The human population took roughly 250,000 years to reach 1 billion, with more than a century passing before it reached 2 billion in 1927.
Thirty-three years later, in 1960, the human population increased to 3 billion. Clearly, since the time period to add 1 billion humans was down to only 33 years, this was a sign that a billion-person population growth was occurring in ever shorter time periods.
Fourteen years later, in 1974, the human population increased to 4 billion.
Thirteen years later, in 1987, the human population increased to 5 billion.
Twelve years later, in 1999, the human population increased to 6 billion.
Twelve years after that, in 2011, the human population is expected to reach 7 billion.
“Both events (from 5 billion to 6 billion, and 6 billion to 7 billion) are unprecedented in world history,” said William Butz, president of the Population Reference Bureau.
Population Growth Centers: Developing Nations
By the end of 2010, global population had reached 6.9 billion with a majority of growth occurring in areas of Africa and Asia.
“Developing countries are adding over 80 million to the population each year and the poorest of those countries are adding 20 million, exacerbating poverty and threatening the environment,” Butz said.
Of today’s 1.2 billion youth, nearly 90 percent live in developing countries, with eight in ten youths residing in Africa or Asia, according to Carl Haub, senior demographer and coauthor of the Population Reference Bureau’s report.
Work-Age Adults to Elderly Ratio
The world’s developed countries, totaling 1.2 billion people, continue to see their populations age as the numbers of those of working age dwindle. The ratio of working-age adults to support the elderly in developed countries has continued to decline because of lower birthrates and longer life spans.
Worldwide in 1950, there were 12 persons of working age, 15 to 64, for every person age 65 or older. By 2010, that number had shrunk to 9.
By 2050, this elderly support ratio which indicates levels of potential social support available for the elderly is projected to drop to 4, according to a Population Reference Bureau data sheet.
Japan has an elderly support ratio of 3, which is the lowest in the world along with Germany and Italy. By 2050, Japan will have only one working-age adult for every elderly person; Germany and Italy will each have 2.
In the United States, the proportion of the gross domestic product spent on Social Security and Medicare is projected to rise to 14.5 percent in 2050, from 8.4 percent this year—a direct result of the nation’s increasing elderly population.
This continuous ratio decline has the potential to jeopardize pension guarantees and long-term health care programs for the elderly, and prompt governments to raise retirement ages and encourage alternative job opportunities for older workers.
Population Growth Projections After 2050
By 2050, the world’s population will total 9 billion, according to Haub.
After 2050 different assumptions are being used to make the projections which show a slowing in the rate of growth. Population will still be growing but not as fast.
From 2050, the next billion-person increase is slated to take 13 or 14 years, with the following billon-person boost occurring 20 years to 25 years later.
Population increases of a billion people will take longer in the future primarily because half of mankind will be living in countries or regions where fertility is at or below 2.1 children per woman.
While it may take slightly longer for the world’s population to reach 8 billion and 9 billion, the vast majority of future global population growth will continue to stem from developing countries.
The population of Africa is projected to at least double by mid century to 2.1 billion, as Africa has a young population base and a total fertility rate of 4.7 children per woman, according to the Population Reference Bureau.
By 2050, Russia and Japan will be bumped from the list of 10 most populous countries by the African nations of Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uganda’s population is also expected to more than triple to 96 million by 2050.
Asia will add an additional 1.3 billion by 2050, despite Japan and South Korea projected to shrink in population. India on the other hand is projected to be the world’s most populous nation at 1.7 billion, overtaking China—which is forecast to hit 1.4 billion.
In the developed world, the U.S. and Canada will account for most of the growth, half from immigration and half from a natural increase in the population.
By 2050, Canada’s population is projected to reach 42 million, an increase of 1 million. The U.S. is expected to reach 439 million, which would make it the third most populous nation in the world.
Europe is projected to shrink in population, as Eurostat predicts deaths will outpace births in five years within the 27-nation European Union, a trend that has already occurred in Bulgaria, Latvia and Hungary.
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